How good can Alabama be after Nick Saban? New College Football Playoff will test expectations (2024)

Editor’s note: This article is part of the College Football Playoff Prospectus, previewing and predicting the top CFP contenders and Power 4 conferences for the upcoming season.

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — During the past two decades, many words and phrases have become synonymous with Alabama football: championships, Heisman, dominance, development, the standard and … Saban. It’s the daily, weekly and yearly expectation of what Alabama should be — a precise machine operating at the highest frequency. The standard was rinse, wash and repeat under the legendary Nick Saban.

But his retirement leaves an open question: What will happen to the standard? According to junior offensive lineman Tyler Booker, it will not go anywhere.

“Everyone thinks that with coach Saban being gone, we’re not going to be the same,” Booker said on the Next Round Live. “The standard lives through us.”

That premise will be tested this fall. Alabama wasn’t the preseason favorite to reach the SEC Championship Game for the first time in more than a decade, and its No. 5 preseason ranking is its lowest since 2009. The program is simultaneously at a high point, coming off an SEC championship a season ago, and at a crossroads with questions about the post-Saban era.

The brunt of the responsibility falls on new coach Kalen DeBoer, whose meteoric rise in coaching to Alabama has been a storyline of its own. Now, he’s one of the most interesting figures in the sport after following the game’s greatest coach. To spend any time around the program means hearing one of two phrases: “1-0 each day” or “relentless pursuit of continuous improvement.” That sounds mundane, but it’s how the program survived a potentially tumultuous offseason.

It came in waves, retaining as much of the roster as possible in the hours and days after Saban’s retirement and establishing recruiting momentum in the wake of that, while building a new staff and mapping out spring practice and beyond. Every day, week and month have brought new challenges for DeBoer and his team. And each phase has brought strong results: Alabama lost just three players after the spring transfer window, holds the No. 2 recruiting class in this year’s cycle and is firmly projected to make this year’s College Football Playoff.

That’s due in part to a strong leadership group made up of four key players: Booker, quarterback Jalen Milroe, linebacker Deontae Lawson and defensive back Malachi Moore.

“What I can say is that we’re a player-led group,” Milroe said. “We look within our team, and we challenge each other every day. You know, mediocrity is not allowed in this building, not just from players but from the ground up. That’s going to ultimately just push us in the right direction.”

Still, the honeymoon phase of the DeBoer-Alabama marriage is coming to an end with games ready to begin. The roster has similar traits to “standard” Alabama teams: strong coaching staff, elite talent and high expectations from the fans. A survey of nearly 700 Alabama fans this summer revealed that 70 percent of responders expect the Tide to play for the SEC championship and win at least one Playoff game.

Factor in the number of departures — to the NFL Draft or the transfer portal — and the elevated competition in the SEC, and the Tide are in a rare position where it feels like they have to prove something in 2024. And the program is embracing that position.

“What a great offseason that we had,” Milroe said. “And that adversity aspect just made us better. I’m glad we had that adversity; it made us stronger as a group. We’ve done a really good job with that.”

The coach

Who wants to be the coach to replace the legend? Meet DeBoer, who 15 years ago led NAIA program Sioux Falls to a third national title in four years. Now he’s at the helm of arguably the biggest brand in the sport, but the expectations don’t seem to wear on DeBoer.

His path to Alabama suggests he thrives in these succession situations, following his former coach, Bob Young, at Sioux Falls and Jeff Tedford at Fresno State. By and large, the transition from Saban to DeBoer has been smooth, and his cultural blending has resonated with players.

DeBoer had as many national championships at Sioux Falls as losses (three), and his coaching record is 104-12. But perhaps his biggest strength is the way he deals with people. It’s why he was able to pull two active head coaches away and hire them as coordinators and why he kept the roster nearly intact after the spring portal window.

“Our coaches have done a really good job with pushing us and mostly just trying to get us passionate for each other and to have that continuous improvement,” Milroe said. “From a team standpoint, I’m excited. We have a family environment here.”

That said, there’s a lot on the line in DeBoer’s debut season as the expanded Playoff has set a clear bar for 2024: make the field or bust. Proving that the standard hasn’t changed is the challenge for DeBoer and his program while keeping a fan base accustomed to championships happy.

The QB

Milroe’s transformation is the central storyline of the program. This time last season, he was an unknown commodity, eventually getting benched before returning to the lineup and leading Alabama to the Playoff. Now, he’s the top returning Heisman vote-getter from a season ago. He’s 10-0 against the SEC as a starting quarterback, and a second-year leap likely would propel Alabama back into SEC championship contention and the Playoff.

How Milroe fits into DeBoer’s system and how many strides the quarterback made from last season are the questions that will define Milroe’s season. If he takes those steps and DeBoer’s system accentuates his strengths, Milroe could be a high-round pick in next year’s NFL draft.

“The adversity aspect of it, it’s much needed,” Milroe said of last year’s early struggles. “I don’t shy away from adversity. That’s a great opportunity to get better as a player mentally and physically and use it as an opportunity to grow. I can say that I have the right support system around me. Each offensive staff member has been great; coach DeBoer is very confident in me and our offense to go out and play to our standard.”

Impact players

OL Parker Brailsford: Alabama fans are well aware of the team’s snap issues last season. The answer appears to be Brailsford, a freshman All-American in 2023 who followed DeBoer from Washington and Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded returning center (81.4). Alabama’s offensive line will be a make-or-break unit, and Brailsford provides a stabilizing force with knowledge of the offense.

LB Deontae Lawson: The front seven should be the defense’s strength, and Lawson is at the core of that unit. He could’ve been in All-SEC contention last season, but an ankle injury slowed him throughout the year.

WR Germie Bernard: Another Washington transfer, Bernard was a contributor last season (31 catches, 419 yards, four total touchdowns) behind the team’s star trio of receivers. Bernard and Milroe connected for more than 100 yards during the spring game, and his knowledge of the system made him an early leader with a key role offensively and as a returner.

DB Malachi Moore: Moore is the lone player on the team who started for a Saban national championship team (2020). Moore elected to stay at Alabama after Saban’s retirement and has been a core leader, so much so that he was named a permanent team captain (with Milroe, Lawson and Booker). Moore returns in a new role: safety after playing nickel last season. Kane Wommack’s defensive system prioritizes playmaking abilities for safeties (his last two interception leaders were safeties), which means Moore should be around the ball a lot.

RBs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes: It’s not often that a program loses its top two rushers, and there’s relatively more optimism about the running game the following year, but that’s the case. Both players flashed explosiveness in 2023, and in DeBoer’s system, which prioritizes catching the ball of the backfield, “1A and 1B” as they’ve been called, should show a diverse skill set. Haynes, a five-star recruit, was named to the preseason All-SEC third team by the coaches despite just 25 carries last year.

Scouting report

DeBoer’s offensive mind is well-respected in the coaching community, but one SEC position coach wonders about the departure of his long-time offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb (now the coordinator with the Seattle Seahawks).

“I think it’s going to be interesting to see how they function and how it’s different without (Grubb),” the coach said. “(Nick Sheridan) has been a coordinator before. That helps, but DeBoer and Grubb had been together so long. Losing that continuity does hurt.”

The coach added that Milroe’s usage in the offense is intriguing and a “scary thought” if DeBoer and Sheridan maximize his skills. The coach stated that it was a “power move” to lure Wommack and Maurice Linguist (head coaches at South Alabama and Buffalo, respectively) to be the co-coordinators on defense.

“It’s Alabama; they still have the players and great infrastructure to win,” the coach said. “The secondary, I think teams will attack it early, but there is a lot to like about this roster. Expectations are always sky-high. It will be interesting to see how that’s managed this year and looking ahead.”

Why Alabama will make the Playoff

When 247Sports recently released its annual talent composite rankings, this year’s No. 1 was Alabama. Despite attrition via the portal (Alabama’s 39 departures led the SEC), it’s a roster that’s rounded out well. Saban’s parting gift to the Tide was the No. 2 high school recruiting class last year, and after spring practice, Alabama finished with 14 portal commitments, good enough for the No. 3 portal class (per 247Sports).

Those 14 additions played more snaps in 2023 than Alabama’s 39 departures combined, per TruMedia. The result: Alabama’s 14 preseason All-SEC selections were the second most in the conference (Georgia 15).

Losing Saban is huge, but a case can be made that the overall staff has improved. DeBoer’s offensive background paired with his assembled staff is an upgrade. There are questions about the new defensive scheme, but the staff appears strong.

DeBoer’s influence on Milroe and Alabama’s entire offense should be positive. Alabama won the SEC a season ago with an offense ranked 58th in total offense, 47th in rush offense and 71st in first downs per game, and there should be improvements in 2024. There are concerns at cornerback, but the Tide have one of the SEC’s best safety duos in Moore and Keon Sabb.

DeBoer is a proven winner with a track record of elevating programs. Now, he’s steering the most talented ship of his career. Schedule difficulty aside, the combination of DeBoer’s staff and the program’s talent predicts success.

Biggest hurdle to making CFP

Naturally, there has to be some drop-off from the greatest coach of all time to his replacement (even if he’s elite), right? Replacing a legend at the top, new systems offensively and defensively and a difficult schedule could mean that Alabama is sweating it out on Selection Sunday. And there are questions at key positions.

The biggest of all is the secondary, where Alabama will have new starters at every position. And the depth behind the starters mainly consists of freshmen, who are talented but inexperienced. The best way to offset that is a strong pass rush, but the edge position doesn’t feature a player who has started a game.

Half of the roster’s players are true or redshirt freshmen, and several will have to fill roles on the two-deep. Can they avoid the mistakes that come with inexperience?

Path to the Playoff

DeBoer’s teams have averaged 2.3 losses in his first season. Certainly, a 10-2 mark would get Alabama into the Playoff based off reputation and facing one of the hardest schedules in the SEC. Alabama’s combined opponent record from 2023 is 91-55, the fourth-highest in the conference this season. An added layer to the difficulty is from the imposing road games across the entire season: Week 3 (Wisconsin), Week 8 (Tennessee), Week 11 (LSU) and Week 13 (Oklahoma).

There’s a chance for early momentum as three of the first four games are at home, including a monster matchup against Georgia with both teams coming off a bye week. Late October and early November largely could tell the story of Alabama’s season: at Tennessee, home against Missouri, and a bye week before a trip to LSU. The most recent trips to Knoxville and Baton Rouge weren’t favorable to Alabama, and both should carry Playoff implications in 2024.

Austin Mock’s projection

Being the one to replace Saban will be a daunting task. Still, Alabama’s talent combined with DeBoer’s track record means the Crimson Tide shouldn’t take too big of a step back. They’re firmly in the CFP mix. Our model gives Alabama only a 9 percent chance of winning the SEC but a 56 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff.

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(Top photo of Jalen Milroe: Harry How / Getty Images)